Managers’ View – Febrero 2019
Adjuntamos algunos informes de análisis y opiniones de nuestros gestores que consideramos de gran interés.
Please find below interesting market views from our Managers. We hope you find them interesting.
Weekly Briefing February 4th
The US high yield market made a sharp recovery in January, reversing negative total returns suffered by the ICE BofAML US High Yield Index (ticker H0A0) in Q4’18. Our analysis of the January recovery points to several areas of increased relative value as we look to the balance of the year. While we remain optimistic that index spreads can generically compress based on key macroeconomic data, lower-rated and longer-duration issues appear to offer increasingly attractive value given disproportionately slower recoveries.
Weekly Briefing February 11th
A surprise tightening of bank lending standards via recently released data from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey has served to dampen enthusiasm for risk assets – including US high yield – given the survey’s reputation for being a strong leading indicator of economic growth. Highly correlated to future corporate default rates, an inflection toward tightening standards has prompted us to reassess our view on principal loss and fair value of spreads within US high yield markets on a go-forward basis. While survey results merit attention, we caution that competing indicators that have demonstrated similar efficacy in the past have not shown degradation of financial conditions, leaving us unwilling to reposition too cautiously for the time being. We nevertheless discuss an array of market implications stemming from tighter lending conditions in this weekly briefing.
Weekly Briefing February 18th
Consistent with data we have presented in past weeklies, the recovery of US high yield markets continues to be uneven in nature, with BBs outperforming lower-quality credit on an historical beta-adjusted basis. Concurrent with this theme, the ever-shrinking spread differential between BBB and BB indices has been brought to the forefront by the Street, with most strategists now calling the highest quality portion of the high yield index significantly overbought. As such, this Weekly Briefing will focus on corporate fundamentals and the underlying market dynamics driving this trend, all in an effort to gauge the justifiability of current trading levels.
Weekly Briefing February 25th
We have received many questions pertaining to current fixed income market valuations amidst a sharp 2019 recovery, and how our breakeven analysis may have changed since publishing the original simulation in early November 2018. As such, this Weekly Briefing takes a renewed look at downside protection across leveraged credit and adjacent fixed income asset classes, gauging resiliency in both long/measured and instantaneous/sharp yield widening scenarios.
Rubrics – Global Macro Update March 2019
2019 has seen continued divergence between financial markets and economic reality. Risk assets have had one of their strongest starts ever despite the clear decline in economic data – a theme that has become especially prevalent post 2008.
We examine in this piece some of the current macroeconomic trends which have supported financial markets in the past 3 months, whilst exploring the longer term sustainability and effectiveness of further central bank support. Lastly, we highlight what we believe might be the catalyst for renewed volatility.
Iapetus Investment SICAV – Informe Mensual Febrero 2019
Buen segundo mes que, junto con enero, permite recuperar casi todas las pérdidas del año anterior. La recuperación de los mercados ha sido llamativa para un entorno sin grandes mejoras, ni económicas ni geopolíticas. En este escenario no tenemos más remedio que enfocarnos aún más en la calidad de las empresas en las que estamos invertidos y en reducir el nivel de riesgo de la cartera paulatinamente. Cerramos febrero con una exposición al mercado de un 61.8%, ya por debajo de la exposición media desde el inicio de Iapetus de un 70%.
Aviso Legal: Los comentarios recogidos en el presente documento no representan asesoramiento financiero alguno y su uso es meramente informativo. Es posible que los comentarios aquí expresados no sean aplicables a su perfil de inversión o a su situación patrimonial personal. En caso de duda, le recomendamos contactar con un profesional financiero.